Are AI, Quantum Computing or IoT Black Swans ?

Only disruptive waves or Black Swans ?

Organisations, whatever their size, must face ever-growing technical disruptive waves. Each one of them is not a Black Swan by itself but can ignite an unpredictable chain reaction which could ignite eventually a Black Swan. For instance, IoT has been on the field for years and have not changed radically our lives. AI is planned to changed our lives but so far it’s more a toy than anything else for 99% persons on this planed. ML is almost everywhere but is very often deep in products and not seen by anyone.

Disruptive Underlying Technologies versus Disruptive Products ?

You may all conclude that all those technologies are not Black Swans because they have been here for tens of years and therefore it’s not a surprised for anyone (except maybe for some tribes deeply hidden in forests).

But we may also assume that the final Products are really what could trigger a Black Swan, an extreme event, an extreme user experience, an extreme use case, which would be so new, so valuable, that it would change the way we buy, the way we live, the way we communicate. And those changes will have tremendous impacts on virtually everything everywhere.

Use Cases versus Product ?

I’ve never been a fan of the words “use cases” because it’s more buzz words where we can put so many different products and solutions. At the end, what matters is a Product (or service) and not a Use Case. What makes you successful is not a use case but a Product. What may trigger a new Black Swan is a Product and not a use case.

Examples of products who could be considered as Black Swans

To my opinion, one of the best example is the SMS (Short Messaging Service) or Texto. It has not only deeply impacted how people communicate but it had a tremendous impact on business models as well. I’ve read that the new Y generation today do not call anymore but let a short voice message on messaging app. That’s fascinating how text messaging is re-inventing itself.

What will be the compelling & high impact new technologies product ?

Now the question is what will be the product or the service based on AI and/or IoT with the potential of changing the world as the SMS did. So far, I don’t see any real product on the field with this potential. AI is mostly a toy played by some people in very limited and often non critical processes. Due to its hallucinations and its lack of reliability, AI hasn’t reached any potential to be truly embedded into a Black Swan product.

One potential product would be a chatbot really smart and replacing hotline. But it’s not yet possible and my last experience with “stupid” AI-powered bots was very disappointing. To go even further, except for some minor & simple problems where most of people are too lazy to read the product notice, replacing a hotline will be very challenging because it is at the intersection of technical support, marketing and sales. Said differently, it requires complex human interactions.

To my opinion, a AI-doctor product would be really a compelling product and a Black Swan. If you could provide the same services as traditional doctors and replace them, it will have tremendous impact, positive or negative, depending on who you are. Replacing lawyers would also be a major Black Swan. Basically, every job where memory & data analysis is the key asset, could face a huge Black Swan.

A true quantum computing computer is totally undiscovered by mass media and to my opinion it will change forever the world we know, much more than AI. And we could even think about combining AI and quantum computing, becoming the Perfect Storm for extreme impacts and changes everywhere.

I don’t see any IoT product which could become a Black Swan but that the true nature of Black Swans, it’s that you even don’t imagine them !